Posts

Generation Gap

Those born before 1986, belong to the “Compromise generation”. They are defined by the need for savings, the need to sacrifice; they are given to domination by elders, and have a pathological need for security. “The Zap Generation”, those born after 1986 are a mutant lot. They are about, not technology, but the speed of technology; they have their own code language. They have an ego; they are global, knowledgeable and sexually liberated, they indulge in themselves and have no role models.” The compromise(d) and the retro generations think today’s young are flippant, shallow and attention deficient. How can they be the future? Howe ever the Zap Generation has in-depth knowledge about all subjects. They know any subject better than their parents. They have a different kind of intelligence. If we don’t listen to them, we will fade out. When this generation becomes 30-45 years old, they will not be in a compromising situation. Their logic is sharp and their arrival is very g...

Euro Crisis: Sovereign problem; corporate solution

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European Monetary Union is in crisis.  Greece is likely to default on its monetary commitments. There is talk of kicking Greece out of the European Union (EU). Greece has PIIGS for company (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece & Spain). All have weak Sovereign finances. It is believed that if Greece becomes independent of EU it could devaluate itself out of its problems. But this surgical treatment has many side effects.    Once Greece is out, Currency speculators will cause havoc with the other PIIGS. It would kick-start a contagion in Europe. The treatment may itself turn into a disease. The suggestion proposed is similar to corporate restructuring / Split. Split Euro into two. Euro (S): representing strong countries like Germany, France and others, and Euro (W): representing weak PIIGS. Euro (W) will gradually devaluate itself and come out of its problems. The union will have sufficient size to take the currency speculators head on....

Stock story III : Bride and its suitors.

This stock is a bride to be, famous for its Hospitality. She has two suitors. One is a Stalker (Hostile?) Another is Arranged (White Knight?) Both Suitors have equal stake. The average cost of the stake of the Arranged suitor is at twice the current market price. One or the other suitor is bound to stake claim of the Bride! When? SEBI recently modified the ‘Take over’ regulation. The revised regulation includes a change in the trigger for an open offer from 15% to 25% With SEBI issuing the notification on Friday 23/09/2011, of the revised takeover code, and the revised code being applicable 30 days from the date of notification, expect action on this counter from November 2011. Can you benefit?

Era of Wilderness: Predicting the future with History

Inspirations: 1. Bible , The Exodus, Moses and the Wilderness: Moses is a man with a calling on his life. God chose him to lead the Israelites out of Egypt and take them to the Promised Land. Through a series of events the Israelites are eventually freed to leave Egypt under Moses’ command. The people, though, are troublesome. They have been used to being slaves, and don’t know what freedom is. They don’t like Moses leading them, and demonstrate that they are a "rebellious house". So rebellious that God even threatens to wipe them out. Moses intercedes on the nation’s behalf and God relents. Rather than trusting God, a major rift develops between God and the Israelites. This proceeds to make God mad, and rather than supporting the nation, condemns them to 40 years wandering around in the desert. The 40-year wilderness experience that God put the Israelites through is something that He does to some of his own. Every one of the Israelites 20 years and older flunke...

Liberalisation 2.0

The British have left. They have gone. It is nice to keep using there language. But it is a pain to keep following the rules they made to control the natives. While the British left India more than six decades ago; we follow outdated rules & regulations written by the British (to control the Slaves). Our Bureaucrats truly follow the dictum, “Hum Angrez ke zamane ke afsar hai.!” We have inherited from our former colonial masters an edifice of “prior approvals” required from the state for too many economic activities. We are also burdened with a tradition of opaque rules with the caveat that “notwithstanding anything contained in these rules, the collector/commissioner/secretary/minister can provide an approval if he…thinks it proper”. And there’s the rub! Opacity and discretion! Our erstwhile rulers found it a useful tool to ‘control’ us and to make sure their favorites (usually British companies) got the coveted approvals. It is high time we as free citizens change the system. O...

Stock story II : Fly along with.

An Indian software company, specific vertical to aviation industry. Now an MNC after take over by a industry giant. Best under a Billion according to Forbes Asia. Acquired more than 34% shares by open offer, when SEBI rules required 20% offer. Open offer price was more than double the present share price. Aviation sector is the fastest growing sector of the Indian economy. Whether Airlines make profit or not, Service providers to these sector will have boom time. Identify these future Multi-Bagger.

Depression 2.0 (2008)

Since 1929 there have been periods of boom & bust in the global economy. The wise say "This time, it's different." It's never different. It's always the same, but with bigger numbers. It reminds me of the quotations from George Santayana’s, Life of Reason, Reason in Common Sense, 'Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.' The economic cycles are associated with the feelings of Greed and Fear. It was greed, rather than the absence of fear that was prevailing in the past few years. Regulation was disregarded, and so was risk, which had been whisked away by whiz-kid ‘quant’s’ They devised exotic financial instruments like derivatives and CDO’s, creating a financial Frankenstein the likes of which had never been seen. Great fortunes were made with the motto ‘profits at any price’. Warren Buffett, the world’s most successful investor called these derivatives, which almost no one understood, "weapons of financial mass destructio...