Posts

Showing posts from June, 2012

A Forgotten Revolutionary : Narasimha Rao, architect of the new India

Image
A Forgotten Revolutionary It’s unfortunate that the nation barely remembers Narasimha Rao, architect of the new India Arvind Panagariya     Fifty years from now when historians take stock of the makers of the new India, two individuals from our times will figure prominently on their lists: Prime ministers P V Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee. If justice prevails, by then, the nation would have also honoured them with Bharat Ratna.     Today, we celebrate the 91 st birth anniversary of Narasimha Rao. An accidental prime minister – he was all set to retire from politics and return to his native Andhra Pradesh when the assassination of former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1991 placed him at the centre of Indian political scene – his tenure came to define the dividing line between the old India and the new. If Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru gave the country a vibrant democracy, Rao (and Vajpayee) gave it a modern economy.  ...

Analyzing the past; Anticipating the future

  PAST: 1 1.       India Shining : Since 2002 till at least 2010 we were under the impression that India is shining, growing at 8-10 % and that we are special. Is that the reality? Yes India was shining but not because it was a Diamond. It was reflecting the light, of Global Liquidity. The easy money policies of the developed economies of the world(US, EU, Japan)   lead to a flood of liquidity ( carry trade) into the emerging markets (BRICS) leading to rise / bubble in Commodities and Emerging Equities. 2 2.   My skills made me make a killing in the Stock market . More than skills it was being in the right place at the right time that helped stock investors see mind boggling returns. More than skills you have to thank your luck (and Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, QEs and LTROs) and the tide of liquidity that raised the equity boat to new highs. Future: 1   1.   The carry trade has to reverse . The flow of Liquidi...