Will Shale end Globalization?

    There is growing euphoria over America’s energy future. Energy experts around the globe have been claiming that the US will gain energy independence in the next eight years. Optimists have even gone on to claim that America’s energy independence will lead to global energy independence. The primary basis for the first of these two claims is a series of technological breakthroughs, the most important of which is the application of what is called shale gas technology to extract oil from rock. Experts and journalists are so impressed by this technological breakthrough that they have credited it for lowering US dependence on imported oil by a quarter from 60% of the country’s overall oil consumption a few years ago to 46% in the current year.
 Oil forecasts have been notoriously slippery; we hope that the current forecasts on US energy independence are based on firmer grounds. Experts claim that within the next eight years, shale reserves in the US will produce three million barrels a day and oil sands production in Canada will double from 1.5 to 3 million barrels per day. If these projections turn true, US may not have to import oil from outside the western hemisphere. Both these sources of oil are, however, unconventional and, therefore, expensive. Production is slow and has environmental consequences. For instance, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing is known to affect underground water. Thus, while energy independence is a temping goal and there are more long-term sources of oil available in the western hemisphere, whether it is economic to produce oil from these sources after adjusting for environmental costs will be an important factor that will determine the exploitation of these sources.

If the shale gas and tar oil predictions do come true, what will be the consequences?

One it will be the end of Globalization and US dominance as it exists today.

Imperialism and the most recent ‘War against terror’ are excuses to obtain resources, raw material and energy security.

With domestic availability of energy security, US will have no incentive to 'Wage a war' in search of elusive weapons of mass destruction. There will be an end of the unemployment problem in US. There will be resurgence of Manufacturing in US, which had moved to China under Globalization.But the work force will have to be retrained for new industries.

The future industries of US will be:

11.     E & P: Exploration and Production of Oil and Gas from Shale.

22.     Environment conservation Industry; to counter the hazards of E &P

33.     Plastic and Petrochemical Industry, to utilize the byproducts of refining.

No wonder India's Reliance Industries is beading frantically for the shale assets.