Time line: Charting the SENSEX future.





Short term capital gains Tax will go.

STT will rise also introduced in Commodites.

After a reformist and fiscally prudent budget in Feb end normal Monsoon during June / Sept is a must have.

2013 /14 growth would be consumption lead not investment lead.
Politics will be focus for markets from late 2013,”

Also pressure to return to profligacy from second quarter of 2013.
While inflation will go down in first half of 2013 it may come back in second half.
A distinct possibility of rate cut in first half followed by continued expectations of rate cut which may not materialize.

Stock market will heat a peak in 2013 around Budget followed by turbulence between March and July 2013.

Fiscal deficit in the current financial year within the revised target of 5.3% of GDP.
“This would be done mostly through reducing expenditure and austerity measures.

Over the longer term fiscal deficit would be cut by 0.6% every year to bring it to 3% of GDP by FY17 through cost cuts as well as enhanced revenue (but without tax increases),”

 Government revenues to rise by 20% every year though not by raising taxes but having a stable tax regime, non-adversarial tax compliance and a fair dispute settlement mechanism.

Prospect of improvement in unemployables in US, could lead to reversal of liquidity pumping policy of Fed, in 2014. Markets may take recognition of this in advance, leading to turbulence.

If global economy improves, exports will improve putting less pressure on rupee.
Best bet for India is to attract foreign capital.


The economy to grow by 5.7% in the current fiscal year
and around 6% to 7% in FY14.
By FY15, it will go back to the 8% GDP growth rate of the past,”

   
GST is unlikely to be implemented by April 13
To introduce the bill in the Monsoon Session and get it approved in the Winter Session (December 2013).

 
Eight year Peak cycle:
Sensex peaked in 1992, 2000, 2008 peak was seen in months of Jan / Feb.
If the trend follows,
Market to start moving up in 2014 to peak in 2016

Comments

  1. Bhaskar Jain30 January 2013 at 07:48

    http://www.mydigitalfc.com/stock-market/sensex-hit-peaks-%E2%80%9884-%E2%80%9892-2000-2008-now-%E2%80%9916-560

    ReplyDelete
  2. drparag30 January 2013 at 09:01

    Thanks, do read other posts especially on doctorcassandra.blogspot.com
    and post your comment.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Aab Tak Chhapan, Aab Nahi to Kab?

Image
I am 56, if not now then when? "If I can, anybody can". India has become the capital of Obesity, Diabetes and Osteoporosis  due to lack of motivation for Outdoor activity. "If you Desire change, change yourself first". I used to advise patients to opt for a active outdoor life. But nobody listened. As a Surgeon at 56, aspiring to be a role model for wellness and fitness I participated in the Polar Fjallraven 2018 contest. Few years back on reaching 50s, I had lot of problems. Syndrome X, Midlife crisis, Mid WAIST crisis, Mid leg crisis and what not. I had the option of taking the Stick – wooden, aluminium, medicine !! I opted for two sticks instead of one. The stick of Running and Hiking. Over the past five years I have played Squash, Lifted weights done a few Half Marathons,Skied and Trekked. Local treks ( Ghatkopar Tekddi, Mulund Tekddi, Sahayadri Ghats and Forts and then high altitude mountain treks in India and Nepa...
Read more

#celebrating60s. Atmanirbhar 41 kms run. 5 th Dec 2021

#celebrating60s Atmanirbhar 41 kms run. Self supported Run. Nutrition, hydration, illumination and music all carried on back. Thanks K Sanjay Singh for giving company in the last 5 kms, pacing and helping me climb the "wall". I dedicate the Run to Dr Pranesh Patil Gaikwad, senior Anesthetist Ghatkopar, fellow runner, co trekker, and travel buddy, with a prayer.. recover soon dear friend. I continuously prayed for him during the run and could finish the run smoothly. The collective prayer of all will smoothen his recovery. We have travelled to many places together, but many are still on the bucket list. Recover soon Patil so I can begin planning.
Read more

Cipla Embraces Gilead and a New Era as Priorities Change

Cipla Embraces Gilead and a New Era as Priorities Change Divya Rajagopal Mumbai:   Once a steadfast backer of generics, co now enters into a deal to make Hepatitis drug for MNC ruary last year Hamied had said  In an interview to ET in 2013, YK Hamied, the founder chairm an of Cipla, and some say the scourge of multinational drug companies, prophesied that the Indian drug industry will witness a sea change around the year 2020.“The momentum of 1972 to 1995 (pre-patent era) can't stop . It will last till 2015, but not after that. So to protect myself for 2020 I have to make radical changes.“ On Monday , the world got a glimpse of the kind of change that Hamied had in mind when Cipla teamed up with California-based Gilead Lifesciences to make and sell its path-breaking Hepatitis C drug Sofosbuvir under voluntary licence. On the face of it, there is nothing wrong with this kind of a deal.Pharma companies ink many such pacts on a regular basis. But what...
Read more