Technology: Mother of Geopolitics and History
Technology Creates History and Geopolitics
What came first Chicken or Egg….
A difficult question to answer, what is easy to answer
according to me,
It is Technology which came first and then Technology dictated the
course of Geopolitics and History.
Let me explain with examples from Modern History.
Industrial age: Industrial age arrived in early nineteenth
century. Use of Coal and subsequently Crude Oil lead us to an era of
Industrialization especially in Europe. To have control over the raw material
used by the industry and also control the markets where the finished goods of
the industries were sold, the Industrial countries of Europe Colonized the
world. The Geopolitics of Colonization and the subsequent History was the creation
of Industrialization.
Jet age: With the rise of the Berlin wall in 1944, the world
was divided into two. The bipolar world was dominated by the Capitalist and the
communist, by NATO and WARSAW, by USA and USSR. This dominance was based on Jet
age technology (Sputnik, Apollo, Space missions and Missiles and Fighter planes). Travel
became faster and easier leading to rise in Global trade and hence prosperity
in the western economies.
Digital age: With the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989, USSR
also collapsed. World became Monopolar
(USA) and also FLAT. Digitization and
Internet made Geographical distances History. This lead to outsourcing, both of
Manufacturing and Services. World poverty reduced. Who controlled the energy supply controlled the
world. This lead to invasions in Iraq and Afghanistan and liaisons with
dictators of Saudi and Egypt.
Shale age: Advent of Horizontal drilling technology in 2012,
lead to boom in production of Shale based sources of energy (gas and crude) in
US. Price of gas has collapsed in USA. The consequences of this will be seen in
Geopolitics and History of the future.
USA no longer is worried about energy security. It will
withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan. From a Bully it will play the role of a Non
Interfering Superpower. It has already shown its colors of noninterference in
Egypt, Libya and now Syria.
Lot of Manufacturing especially the one which uses energy, crude, petroleum
products and that which can be automated will shift back to USA.
Global crude prices will fall. This will end the hegemony of
oil dictators in MENA (Middle East and North Africa
). After a violent last burst, there will be an end of Global Islamic/ Wahabi terrorism.
). After a violent last burst, there will be an end of Global Islamic/ Wahabi terrorism.
Dear Parag,
ReplyDeleteGood one. Sure technology to a large extent has shaped modern history and geopolitical events.
To the jet age you could also add nuclear bombing of Hiroshima which catapulted US to pole position. The rise of the US defense conglomerates. And the Space race.
But I would think technology would not be the sole shaper of geopolitical events. Maybe modern nation states use technology to push the frontiers to their advantage. But in this age geopolitical events are not shaped only by nation states. Non state actors contribute a lot to shaping the world the way it is. Case in point…….Bombing of WTC by Al Qaeda. They did use technology to ensure maximum destruction. But was their drive was technological.
What would you attribute Emperor Ashoka’s conquest over 2000 years ago?
And then thereafter what would you attribute the change of Ashoka from a marauder to a saint who spread Buddhism from India to large parts of Asia.
Or the birth of Jesus Christ and growth of Christianity. What would you attribute the rise of Prophet Mohammed and the advent of Islam? What would you attribute the wars in the Middle Ages in Europe…the so called crusades? Is not religion and spirituality a larger force shaping History and Geopolitical events? I would think it has always been and would continue to remain so.
Add to that scarcity of resources. As it has already started. When poverty in the developing world comes down, more people would demand better quality of life. More food. Better living conditions. What is propelling China to lease out farm lands from its neighbours… food security? Think what this would do to the geopolitics of our region?
Some of it would definitely be met with technology. Better farm productivity , including GM crops etc. would meet some of the demands for food. But what would happen when nations fight over scarce water resources? What are nations and individuals doing for the very real threat of global warming? Wouldn’t sustainability be more important?
Thanks for your comments Vijay.
ReplyDeleteYou have given a detailed response and I appreciate that.
My blog is about Modern History and linkage of Technology shaping Geopolitics.
Although advent of Fire, invention of the Wheel and Telegraph are Technologies that made history, I have not ventured into that era deliberately.
As regards as bombing of WTC, I would stick to my guns. Energy security from US perspective and their actions thereof are the precursors of those events.
Nice observations!!
ReplyDeleteIf U go back into history U will find that:
1) Horseshoe made from (good quality) iron/steel determined to a large extent the fact that invaders cud travel so far and cud invade India. We did not know about it, though we were quite qdvanced in metallurgy.
2) Gun-powder and fire-arms to a very large extent have determined the world history by deciding the wars in favour of superior technology. Even today this fact to a large extent determines the fate of a war.
3) Aeroplanes and their use in the war is another aspect which needs no elaboration.
4) Radar and sonar are yet another example of superior technology and their application in war.
5) More recently, the use of electronics in the war machines is also a common knowledge.
Your observations about the future, however are interesting and it appears that Ur predictions are correct. BUT what new inventions and discoveries will take place in the next 20-30 years is not known to anybody; and how will they affect the world history is still a conjecture.
I was pleasantly surprised that a doctors keeps himself so much uptodate about the happenings in the world and takes an interest in the future of the world. Keep it up!!!
Diwakar Mittal
Dear Dr Diwakar your observation about Horseshoe, Gun Powder, Jet planes and Sonar are perfect.
DeleteNot only modern history but ancient history has similar examples in the form of Fire and the Wheel.
As far as future is concerned only time will tell,
I want to emphasize on the advent of Horizontal Drilling and Fracking as a Technology for Shale exploration and its impact on Geopolitics and Foreign policy of the Super powers in the future.